Originally Published on January 7, 2021 … difference of opinion is not a difference of principle. – Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address 3/4/1801 We have two classes of forecasters: those who don’t know—and those who don’t know that they don’t know. – John Kenneth Galbraith The Great Disappointment is often referenced as March 21,1844 when it was erroneously predicted that Christ was to return and the world as we know it would end. In researching this moment of history, yo

Originally Published on October 5, 2020 BPS: Basis Points or units of a percentage point. A quick google search will define it as: A basis point represents the smallest unit of measurement for interest rates and other financial instruments. One basis point is equal to one-hundredth of 1 percent. The US 10 year bond new yields between 60 and 70 bps…you can lend money to the US Treasury for ten years and get a return of .7%. This low yield has been engineered via complex maneu

Originally Published on July 3, 2020 “Whenever a theory appears to you as the only possible one, take this as a sign that you have neither understood the theory nor the problem which it was intended to solve.” ― Karl Popper “… three critical goals: First, we must detect outbreaks that occur anywhere in the world; second, we must protect the American people by stockpiling vaccines and antiviral drugs, and improve our ability to rapidly produce new vaccines against a pandemic

Originally Published on April 1, 2020 The Affect Heuristic The dominance of conclusions over arguments is most pronounced where emotions are involved. The psychologist Paul Slovic has proposed an affect heuristic in which people let their likes and dislikes determine their beliefs about the world. Your political preference determines the arguments that you find compelling. If you like the current health policy, you believe its benefits are substantial and its costs more mana