Originally Published on October 6, 2023 2022 has been a significantly down year. The Dow finished down 8.78%, S&P down 19.44% and NASDAQ down 33.1%. For further stats see marketwatch or Forbes . From an early age, I have memories of observing my father reading the newspaper in a ritualistic fashion. Ronald Shink had ongoing commentaries regarding what he saw as right and wrong in business, politics, and investing. He would often be ranting with anger about a perceived wrong

Originally Published on October 7, 2022 Material discussed is meant for general/informational purposes only and it is not to be construed as tax, legal, or investment advice. Although the information has been gathered from sources believed to be reliable, please note that individual situations can vary therefore, the information should be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Diversification does

Originally Published on July 6, 2022 American gas has gone to $6 per gallon…run for your lives! Before you go, please remember to pack a lunch, bring lots of hydration and dig into a little research: According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, energy, and food consumption as a share of disposable income are also historically low. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show gasoline and other fuels account for 2.9% of Americans’ spending, a little more than half of what

Originally Published on April 5, 2022 The “Wall of Worry” refers to the propensity of financial markets to rise in the face of ostensibly insurmountable problems. The negative issues being revealed for investors are a true gut check. Q1 22 began by swiftly moving into a “correction” or 10% downswing. The S&P 500 was down over 12% at the low point of the quarter. A rally in March left US markets down 5% on 3-31-22. More market data is available at Bloomberg or WSJ . The pand

Originally Published on January 4, 2022 Equity investors have become conditioned to gains. The post 2008 experience has embedded the idea that investing = gains. This may be true over longer periods, but we have become spoiled. The warning consistently given is to “buckle up” as downswings from the recent run up are likely. In addition to securing your emotional seatbelt, here are a few other coping mechanisms for the corrections that may arrive soon: Long walks Cycling Water

Originally Published on October 5, 2021 Hopes for a fade of the Covid-19 virus are rising. As vaccination rates increase and the Delta variant burns itself out, we may be able to see light in the tunnel. Markets are getting volatile as the steroids (zero interest rates and $120b of dollars added to the financial system monthly) of the Federal Reserve are being slowly reduced. The economic consequences of the pandemic would have been much worse without the financial doctoring

Originally Published on July 2, 2021 “The master-economist must possess a rare combination of gifts …. He must be mathematician, historian, statesman, philosopher—in some degree. He must understand symbols and speak in words. He must contemplate the particular, in terms of the general, and touch abstract and concrete in the same flight of thought. He must study the present in the light of the past for the purposes of the future. No part of man’s nature or his institutions mus

Originally Published on March 31, 2021 I can prove anything I’ll make you admit again and again That I can prove anything The way that it’s read again and again… We are the angry mob We read the papers everyday We like who we like, we hate who we hate But we’re also easily swayed “The Angry Mob” lyrics, by artist Kaiser Chiefs; Release date 8-20-2007 January 6, 2021 was an event that brought historic violence. The angry mob was as busy posting selfies, a blessing that likely

Originally Published on January 7, 2021 … difference of opinion is not a difference of principle. – Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address 3/4/1801 We have two classes of forecasters: those who don’t know—and those who don’t know that they don’t know.  – John Kenneth Galbraith The Great Disappointment is often referenced as March 21,1844 when it was erroneously predicted that Christ was to return and the world as we know it would end. In researching this moment of history, yo

Originally Published on October 5, 2020 BPS: Basis Points or units of a percentage point. A quick google search will define it as:  A basis point represents the smallest unit of measurement for interest rates and other financial instruments. One basis point is equal to one-hundredth of 1 percent. The US 10 year bond new yields between 60 and 70 bps…you can lend money to the US Treasury for ten years and get a return of .7%. This low yield has been engineered via complex maneu

Originally Published on July 3, 2020 “Whenever a theory appears to you as the only possible one, take this as a sign that you have neither understood the theory nor the problem which it was intended to solve.” ― Karl Popper “… three critical goals: First, we must detect outbreaks that occur anywhere in the world; second, we must protect the American people by stockpiling vaccines and antiviral drugs, and improve our ability to rapidly produce new vaccines against a pandemic

Originally Published on April 1, 2020 The Affect Heuristic  The dominance of conclusions over arguments is most pronounced where emotions are involved. The psychologist Paul Slovic has proposed an affect heuristic in which people let their likes and dislikes determine their beliefs about the world. Your political preference determines the arguments that you find compelling. If you like the current health policy, you believe its benefits are substantial and its costs more mana

Originally Published on January 7, 2020 2019 has been a persistently positive year with a final move up in Q4.  For the year, the Dow ended 22% higher, the S&P gained 29%, and the Nasdaq rose 35% For further market coverage, see https://markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/overview/overview.asp Long term investors have been rewarded with a significant upswing for 2019. For those that believe in “Get Invested, Stay Invested”, this feels pretty good. Holding diversified mutu

Originally Published on December 30, 2017 2017 was a big year for investors as the S&P has delivered 19.42%. For complete data see https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-28/asia-stocks-head-for-muted-open-after-record-high-markets-wrap Less Government, more problems? Bitcoin is a convergence of technology and libertarian economics that provides a means of exchange disconnected from centralized control and government involvement. Satoshi Nakamoto – a mystery figure

Originally Published on September 28, 2017 Understanding the Mysteries of Human Behavior is a Great Course Lecture series by Mark Leary, Ph.D. Garonzik Family Professor of Psychology and Neuroscience Duke University (2012). In Lecture 8, “Why Are So Many People So Stressed Out?” Dr. Leary points out that much of modern day stress emanates from the fact that our lives are built around a “Delayed Return Environment”. This is defined as a world in which “people invest a lot of t

Originally Published on June 29, 2017 Photo fascination is taking over the consciousness of a substantial number of people. Wherever you look, people are browsing thru “social media”. Walking and scrolling. Gazing down constantly, the prospects of permanent neck damage seem certain. Dinner, family, meetings and all manner of activity are dominated by the pervasive digital world seen through the small portal of a phone screen. With the riveted concentration of a scientist edit

Originally Published on March 31, 2017 Every ninety days or so, I begin to think about what I can write that will fortify the process of building portfolios and create the best balance between risk and reward. All of the material that I produce is intended to give perspective on what is currently happening in our world and yet the message seems to always lead back to the same place. This endeavor of seeking our greatest potential as investors will never be easy. These commen