Originally Published on January 24, 2017 The Law of Small Numbers   The surprise outcome of the Presidential  election is The Story of 2016.  The campaign season was as unsettling and disruptive to the public consciousness as could ever be imagined. The attention of our country and much of the world bore down with such force as to render almost all other important stories lacking proper attention. The political pundits, polling, prediction markets, and statisticians all cam

Originally Published on October 5, 2016 Recent AP wire news flash 9-28-16 : OPEC countries neared agreement on a preliminary accord Wednesday to limit oil production, sending oil prices upward, despite lingering differences between regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran…Benchmark U.S. crude jumped $2.38, or 5.3 percent, to $47.05 a barrel in New York. Brent crude, the international standard, was up $2.72, or 5.9 percent, to $48.69 a barrel in London. https://finance.yahoo.com

Originally Published on July 4, 2016 The British are leaving!  The British are leaving!... and it’s not a good thing. The confusion caused by the recent surprise outcome of a United Kingdom referendum to choose to “Leave” the European Union has been quite dramatic. The uncertain nature of the choice to leave has been driving big swings up and down in equity prices worldwide since the outcome was announced. The uncertain process of the United Kingdom leaving the EU leaves th

Originally Published on April 4, 2016 The markets began 2016 with a fever induced by concerns about global growth, dysfunction in China, rapid declines in commodity and energy prices and rising interest rates in the United States. These fears led to one of the most negative calendar year starts ever in US markets. On top of implosion in the Mid-East, contentious US presidential primaries and elections in 2016 and numerous other macro-economic concerns, it seems we were lookin

Originally Published on January 13, 2016 The past 12 months have been a volatile sequence that has amounted to running in place. The fourth quarter was positive with a move that gained back most of the summer losses. The S&P 500 is closing out 2015 with a total return of 1.4%. For complete market coverage see http://markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/overview/overview.asp For more interesting perspective on the market in 2015 see http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-th

Originally Published on October 3, 2015 The market is in correction mode. We have just experienced the worst 90 days since 2011. The S&P 500 index was down 6.9% for the quarter ended September 30, 2015. The Wall Street Journal notes “daily swings grew bigger as investors fretted over China…while a commodities selloff and rising junk-bond yields added to the anxiety.” The market is struggling with the challenges of ultra-low interest rates and the likely increase in the cost o

Originally Published on July 8, 2015 The Market moved very little in Q2 2015. For update see http://www.bloomberg.com/markets These “uncertain times”. This expression is utilized constantly to express the complexity of our world and the opaque and unknowable future. It is interesting to stop and think about what times were more certain. Looking back at different historical events that were daunting, it is quite deceptive in hindsight to think that outcomes were foreseeable o

Originally Published on April 5, 2015 Q1 2015 was a volatile quarter that ended nearly flat. The S&P 500 did book a .4% advance, but overall in the US, markets seem to be having difficulty moving higher. We are seeing some gains outside the United States in Germany, and even Japan has been moving up. See complete coverage at http://www.bloomberg.com/markets. Watching the markets gyrate, I can always reassure myself that portfolio values will likely be higher at some point in

Originally Published on January 9, 2015 A Time for Resolve To be grateful for family and friends To view health as the greatest blessing and to strive to live in more wholesome ways Seek patience and calm in the face of challenge Push for discipline and persistence in the pursuit of projects and goals Recognize giving as the most important act, and embrace the rewards that charity will bring Calm and serenity is the ultimate goal, to be sought one minute at a time Alwa

Originally Published October 5, 2014 Q3 2014 has granted investors another positive quarter as summed up by the Wall Street Journal: “Dow up 1.3% and the S&P 500 up 0.6% in the third quarter. The S&P's quarterly gain marked its seventh in a row, the longest period of gains since a 14-quarter winning streak that ended in 1998. The Nasdaq also posted its seventh straight quarterly gain, its longest streak of wins since the eight quarters ended in 1996. Evidence of an improving

Published on July 7th, 2014 Q2 2014 Shows at YTD on the S&P 500 of 6.1%. The market continues to push forward in the face of geopolitical turmoil and the psychological wall of all-time market highs on the Dow and S&P 500. See http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/  for complete data. The tragic and heart wrenching affliction of what was originally referred to as “Shell Shock” after the First World War is something that we can never make light of. Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder th

Originally Published on May 8 2014 US Equity markets about even to start the year  http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/ Prices seem to be consolidating the rise that began at the bottom of the financial crisis in March 2009. As equity and other asset values go higher, it will take time for the profitability of US and global corporations to catch up. After the rise that occurred in 2013 it is normal to feel that “what goes up, must come down”. Assets prices have not gone

Originally Published on January 12, 2014 Blessing Counting Family : All in the Shink Clan are well and wish the best for all of our friends and clients First World : We all live in a top rate first world country – I would say USA is #1 by a huge margin, but let’s try to stay humble Food : We all like to eat, right? Make sure you eat right though Heat : Energy supplies are growing and we can all stay warm this chilly winter for less$$ Portfolio Results : Huge market in 20

The S&P 500 posted a positive quarter rising 4.7%. Over the last twelve months, the S&P is up a bit over 17%. For full coverage see http://markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/usmarkets/usmarkets.asp As we continue to benefit from a market that climbs the proverbial “Wall of Worry”, there is another showdown / negotiation / stalemate in our federal government. Sounds of Hedgehogs Where can we turn for a reasonable forecast of… The economy? Jobs and unemployment? Presidenti

Originally Published on July 7, 2013 http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ for full coverage. Uncertain Times It is always fascinating to hear the pundits and publicity seekers that appear in financial media television and print speak of the uncertain and perilous times that we now live in. One can only wonder when the times were more clear and certain. A reasonable estimate would be . The day of clarity has never been and will not be showing up any time soon. Forget about it.

Originally Published on April 8, 2013 S&P up 10% YTD March 9, 2013 was the forty eight month anniversary of the bottom of our recent global financial crisis. On Monday 3-25-13 Cyprus was filling leading financial headlines around the world. The story was full of dread and panic that the Cypriot banking system was on the verge of collapse and that it would begin a domino effect into other banking systems in southern Europe. My first reaction was confusion that I had not hear

Originally Posted on January 8, 2013 2012 Year End Perspective  2012 was a year filled with uncertainty. The final results are quite surprising considering all the sweat and hand wringing that filled the year. It is not surprising that the market does exactly what was not predicted. The market indexes all finished higher: DOW up 7.3% S&P up 13.4% Nasdaq up 15.9% Nattering nabobs of negativism "In the United States today, we have more than our share of . They have formed their

Originally Published on October 6, 2012 The market is having a very good year so far. The S&P 500 is up 14.56% year to date. Prices are being driven by our Federal Reserve policy, as noted in Barron;s 10-1-2012 http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111904414004578016363017457512.html?mod=BOL_hps_dc “With the Fed providing easy money, Nordberg is betting that inflation will bolster growth stocks. "It's all wildly inflationary, and stocks are real assets," he says.

Originally Published on July 8, 2012 Up Year, down quarter Q2 2012 has been filled with downs and ups. The volatility of EURO /Banking /Government debt crisis has returned to the market like a summer ritual. The numbers year to date are actually quite good. The Global Index MXWO:IND is up 4.49%, while the US markets are up 8.31% SPX:IND.   The markets remain very nervous and each day seems to have mass psychology that oscillates like the weather. Equity portfolios are bein

Originally Published April 7 2012 “Stocks up 12%, best quarterly start since 1998.” Now, that is a headline to be grateful for. The market has confounded the pessimism of most of 2011 with a great start.  The Dow is up 8.14% ytd and the NASDAQ is up a whopping 18.67% ytd. Now what? Well, it will never be easy. You can expect that the political events leading to the presidential election of 2012 are going to be very tough for the market. The reality is that it is ALWAYS tough.