Originally Published on January 24, 2017 The Law of Small Numbers   The surprise outcome of the Presidential  election is The Story of 2016.  The campaign season was as unsettling and disruptive to the public consciousness as could ever be imagined. The attention of our country and much of the world bore down with such force as to render almost all other important stories lacking proper attention. The political pundits, polling, prediction markets, and statisticians all cam

Originally Published on October 5, 2016 Recent AP wire news flash 9-28-16 : OPEC countries neared agreement on a preliminary accord Wednesday to limit oil production, sending oil prices upward, despite lingering differences between regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran…Benchmark U.S. crude jumped $2.38, or 5.3 percent, to $47.05 a barrel in New York. Brent crude, the international standard, was up $2.72, or 5.9 percent, to $48.69 a barrel in London. https://finance.yahoo.com

Originally Published on July 4, 2016 The British are leaving!  The British are leaving!... and it’s not a good thing. The confusion caused by the recent surprise outcome of a United Kingdom referendum to choose to “Leave” the European Union has been quite dramatic. The uncertain nature of the choice to leave has been driving big swings up and down in equity prices worldwide since the outcome was announced. The uncertain process of the United Kingdom leaving the EU leaves th

Originally Published on April 4, 2016 The markets began 2016 with a fever induced by concerns about global growth, dysfunction in China, rapid declines in commodity and energy prices and rising interest rates in the United States. These fears led to one of the most negative calendar year starts ever in US markets. On top of implosion in the Mid-East, contentious US presidential primaries and elections in 2016 and numerous other macro-economic concerns, it seems we were lookin