Originally Published on March 31, 2021 I can prove anything I’ll make you admit again and again That I can prove anything The way that it’s read again and again… We are the angry mob We read the papers everyday We like who we like, we hate who we hate But we’re also easily swayed “The Angry Mob” lyrics, by artist Kaiser Chiefs; Release date 8-20-2007 January 6, 2021 was an event that brought historic violence. The angry mob was as busy posting selfies, a blessing that likely

Originally Published on January 7, 2021 … difference of opinion is not a difference of principle. – Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address 3/4/1801 We have two classes of forecasters: those who don’t know—and those who don’t know that they don’t know.  – John Kenneth Galbraith The Great Disappointment is often referenced as March 21,1844 when it was erroneously predicted that Christ was to return and the world as we know it would end. In researching this moment of history, yo

Originally Published on October 5, 2020 BPS: Basis Points or units of a percentage point. A quick google search will define it as:  A basis point represents the smallest unit of measurement for interest rates and other financial instruments. One basis point is equal to one-hundredth of 1 percent. The US 10 year bond new yields between 60 and 70 bps…you can lend money to the US Treasury for ten years and get a return of .7%. This low yield has been engineered via complex maneu

Originally Published on July 3, 2020 “Whenever a theory appears to you as the only possible one, take this as a sign that you have neither understood the theory nor the problem which it was intended to solve.” ― Karl Popper “… three critical goals: First, we must detect outbreaks that occur anywhere in the world; second, we must protect the American people by stockpiling vaccines and antiviral drugs, and improve our ability to rapidly produce new vaccines against a pandemic

Originally Published on April 1, 2020 The Affect Heuristic  The dominance of conclusions over arguments is most pronounced where emotions are involved. The psychologist Paul Slovic has proposed an affect heuristic in which people let their likes and dislikes determine their beliefs about the world. Your political preference determines the arguments that you find compelling. If you like the current health policy, you believe its benefits are substantial and its costs more mana

Originally Published on January 7, 2020 2019 has been a persistently positive year with a final move up in Q4.  For the year, the Dow ended 22% higher, the S&P gained 29%, and the Nasdaq rose 35% For further market coverage, see https://markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/overview/overview.asp Long term investors have been rewarded with a significant upswing for 2019. For those that believe in “Get Invested, Stay Invested”, this feels pretty good. Holding diversified mutu

Originally Published on December 30, 2017 2017 was a big year for investors as the S&P has delivered 19.42%. For complete data see https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-28/asia-stocks-head-for-muted-open-after-record-high-markets-wrap Less Government, more problems? Bitcoin is a convergence of technology and libertarian economics that provides a means of exchange disconnected from centralized control and government involvement. Satoshi Nakamoto – a mystery figure

Originally Published on September 28, 2017 Understanding the Mysteries of Human Behavior is a Great Course Lecture series by Mark Leary, Ph.D. Garonzik Family Professor of Psychology and Neuroscience Duke University (2012). In Lecture 8, “Why Are So Many People So Stressed Out?” Dr. Leary points out that much of modern day stress emanates from the fact that our lives are built around a “Delayed Return Environment”. This is defined as a world in which “people invest a lot of t

Originally Published on June 29, 2017 Photo fascination is taking over the consciousness of a substantial number of people. Wherever you look, people are browsing thru “social media”. Walking and scrolling. Gazing down constantly, the prospects of permanent neck damage seem certain. Dinner, family, meetings and all manner of activity are dominated by the pervasive digital world seen through the small portal of a phone screen. With the riveted concentration of a scientist edit

Originally Published on March 31, 2017 Every ninety days or so, I begin to think about what I can write that will fortify the process of building portfolios and create the best balance between risk and reward. All of the material that I produce is intended to give perspective on what is currently happening in our world and yet the message seems to always lead back to the same place. This endeavor of seeking our greatest potential as investors will never be easy. These commen

Originally Published on January 24, 2017 The Law of Small Numbers   The surprise outcome of the Presidential  election is The Story of 2016.  The campaign season was as unsettling and disruptive to the public consciousness as could ever be imagined. The attention of our country and much of the world bore down with such force as to render almost all other important stories lacking proper attention. The political pundits, polling, prediction markets, and statisticians all cam

Originally Published on October 5, 2016 Recent AP wire news flash 9-28-16 : OPEC countries neared agreement on a preliminary accord Wednesday to limit oil production, sending oil prices upward, despite lingering differences between regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran…Benchmark U.S. crude jumped $2.38, or 5.3 percent, to $47.05 a barrel in New York. Brent crude, the international standard, was up $2.72, or 5.9 percent, to $48.69 a barrel in London. https://finance.yahoo.com

Originally Published on July 4, 2016 The British are leaving!  The British are leaving!... and it’s not a good thing. The confusion caused by the recent surprise outcome of a United Kingdom referendum to choose to “Leave” the European Union has been quite dramatic. The uncertain nature of the choice to leave has been driving big swings up and down in equity prices worldwide since the outcome was announced. The uncertain process of the United Kingdom leaving the EU leaves th

Originally Published on April 4, 2016 The markets began 2016 with a fever induced by concerns about global growth, dysfunction in China, rapid declines in commodity and energy prices and rising interest rates in the United States. These fears led to one of the most negative calendar year starts ever in US markets. On top of implosion in the Mid-East, contentious US presidential primaries and elections in 2016 and numerous other macro-economic concerns, it seems we were lookin

Originally Published on January 13, 2016 The past 12 months have been a volatile sequence that has amounted to running in place. The fourth quarter was positive with a move that gained back most of the summer losses. The S&P 500 is closing out 2015 with a total return of 1.4%. For complete market coverage see http://markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/overview/overview.asp For more interesting perspective on the market in 2015 see http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-th

Originally Published on October 3, 2015 The market is in correction mode. We have just experienced the worst 90 days since 2011. The S&P 500 index was down 6.9% for the quarter ended September 30, 2015. The Wall Street Journal notes “daily swings grew bigger as investors fretted over China…while a commodities selloff and rising junk-bond yields added to the anxiety.” The market is struggling with the challenges of ultra-low interest rates and the likely increase in the cost o

Originally Published on July 8, 2015 The Market moved very little in Q2 2015. For update see http://www.bloomberg.com/markets These “uncertain times”. This expression is utilized constantly to express the complexity of our world and the opaque and unknowable future. It is interesting to stop and think about what times were more certain. Looking back at different historical events that were daunting, it is quite deceptive in hindsight to think that outcomes were foreseeable o

Originally Published on April 5, 2015 Q1 2015 was a volatile quarter that ended nearly flat. The S&P 500 did book a .4% advance, but overall in the US, markets seem to be having difficulty moving higher. We are seeing some gains outside the United States in Germany, and even Japan has been moving up. See complete coverage at http://www.bloomberg.com/markets. Watching the markets gyrate, I can always reassure myself that portfolio values will likely be higher at some point in

Originally Published on January 9, 2015 A Time for Resolve To be grateful for family and friends To view health as the greatest blessing and to strive to live in more wholesome ways Seek patience and calm in the face of challenge Push for discipline and persistence in the pursuit of projects and goals Recognize giving as the most important act, and embrace the rewards that charity will bring Calm and serenity is the ultimate goal, to be sought one minute at a time Alwa

Originally Published October 5, 2014 Q3 2014 has granted investors another positive quarter as summed up by the Wall Street Journal: “Dow up 1.3% and the S&P 500 up 0.6% in the third quarter. The S&P's quarterly gain marked its seventh in a row, the longest period of gains since a 14-quarter winning streak that ended in 1998. The Nasdaq also posted its seventh straight quarterly gain, its longest streak of wins since the eight quarters ended in 1996. Evidence of an improving